W4.0
Subscribe on YouTubeNoise Cancelling

Cutting through the noise to focus on what matters in investing and markets. Neil Woodford shares research insights, market analysis, and the investment principles behind W4.0.

Listen on Apple PodcastsListen on SpotifyWatch on YouTube
Forget China. Europe Is The Imbalance That Could Drag Britain Down.
EP36
LATEST · EP 368 May 2026

Forget China. Europe Is The Imbalance That Could Drag Britain Down.

0:0038:16
Show notes

All Episodes

36 episodes

Forget China. The biggest economic imbalance in the world right now is between America and Europe. In 2008, the EU was the same size as the US. Today it is 41% smaller.

Brent jumped 7% yesterday to over $120. The consensus says oil is heading higher and the UK is heading into stagflation. We think the consensus is wrong about oil — and wrong in two directions at once.

Every major UK forecaster has downgraded Britain’s growth and blamed the energy shock. Neil Woodford thinks every one of them is wrong — and not about the numbers, but the diagnosis.

Is the Iran war already over? Neil Woodford explains why Iran has just 13 days before its oil production suffers permanent damage — and why this means oil prices, UK inflation, and interest rates could all reverse faster than markets expect.

Everyone is screaming stagflation. Neil Woodford thinks they are wrong. In this episode, we walk through four structural deflationary forces — in goods, services, energy and labour — that were pushing prices down before the Iran war and have not been reversed by it. Plus: what it means for your mortgage, gilts and savings, and our update on the Iran war scenarios.

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Oil is above $100. Trump just told the world to reopen it themselves. Every channel is covering what happened — we’re giving you a framework for what happens next.

The UK has the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world. British factories pay four times more than American ones. And Britain just banned exploration in the same North Sea basin where Norway is actively drilling.

A landmark study by Ben Bernanke found that it wasn’t oil shocks that caused recessions. It was the interest rate hikes that followed. The central bank’s reaction did more damage than the oil shock itself. Neil and Jon explain the Bernanke research, apply it to the UK economy, and discuss what it means for anyone with a mortgage, savings, a pension, or investments in the UK.

In this episode we dig into what’s driving the sell-off in UK domestic stocks, a behavioural finance concept called the disposition effect that explains why investors sell their winners in a panic, and whether a long-term investment strategy still makes sense when the world can change this fast.

In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in the UK — shares the 5-principle framework he uses to make investment decisions during a geopolitical crisis. We call it The Geopolitical Shock Playbook.

Why are markets so fragile right now? In this episode, Neil breaks down the one question most investors don’t ask clearly enough: what are you actually paying for when you buy a stock? We go back to first principles on valuation, explain the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in plain English, and show why the starting valuation often determines your long-run returns.   You’ll also see why high P/E doesn’t automatically mean “expensive” (and low P/E doesn’t automatically mean “cheap”), plus a surprising comparison between S&P 500 vs FTSE total returns and how differently those returns were achieved.  New episodes every week. Subscribe so you don't miss the next one. 🔗 LINKSNeil's latest writing: https://www.woodfordviews.com Last week's episode — Why UK Stocks Could Be the Trade of the Yearhttps://youtu.be/nJ9o0WXocBM   What you’ll learn in this video• How to interpret P/E ratios and why they’re only the start of the analysis  • The difference between earnings and cash flow, and why both matter  • Why overpaying can lead to years of disappointment even when a business performs• How sentiment and valuation can dominate returns versus fundamentals  • A practical framework for thinking about growth expectations and valuation risk ⚠️ This content is for education and information only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a regulated adviser if you need personal recommendations. If you’ve got a question you’d like us to cover in a future episode, email us at hello@w4pz.com.

UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks. In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in British investing history — breaks down why he believes UK consumer spending is about to inflect, what the savings ratio doubling to 10% really means, and why interest rate cuts from the Bank of England could trigger a recovery almost nobody is pricing in. We cover the five domino chain reaction from rate cuts to stock prices, the biggest household deleveraging in modern UK economic history, the ONS measurement scandal that makes UK productivity look far worse than it actually is, and what all of this means for domestic-facing UK equities — from banks to housebuilders to retailers. If you watched last week's episode on UK regulatory reform, this is the other half of the story. The plumbing is being fixed. The fuel is about to flow. New episodes every week. Subscribe and hit the bell so you don't miss the next one. 🔗 LINKSNeil's latest writing: https://www.woodfordviews.comLast week's episode — UK Regulatory Reform: https://youtu.be/8UV3F3_ptr0?si=Z9-QqUuOKOruKv4NIs It Time To Buy British?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhexIETWueUBank of England Monetary Policy Report: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2026/february-2026

Google just raised $32bn in 24 hours. The main buyers of its 100-year sterling bond? UK pension funds. The same institutions that abandoned British equities. Neil Woodford explains how three regulatory decisions broke the UK stock market — and why that’s created a generational opportunity.

$1 trillion wiped from software stocks in weeks. If you own a global tracker, S&P 500, or pension fund, you're probably exposed—here's what you need to know about the AI selloff and what to do next. In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down: Why Claude and AI coding tools are crushing software valuations How your pension is exposed to tech stocks (even if you never bought any) The Bank of England's rate decision—and why Neil thinks they got it wrong Bitcoin's 40% crash: buying opportunity or death spiral? Where Neil sees value when the S&P 500 looks stretched

Ray Dalio warns the monetary order is breaking down. Gold hits all-time highs. ASML & SK Hynix post record earnings. This week on Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down what it means for your strategy.

Neil Woodford predicted Trump’s second year would be calmer. But in January alone, Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, there’s been talk of Greenland and Canada annexation, and Taiwan tensions continue to escalate – he was wrong. Yet his strategies still beat the market. What can we learn from Neil’s way of thinking?

The FT polled 103 economists this week. Two-thirds predict MORE tax rises and weak growth for the UK. Neil thinks they’re all wrong. Again.

Neil Woodford shares his 2026 global economic outlook – AI boom, China, EU, US and UK economies, inflation, interest rates and stock markets – and how he’d build a strategy for this world.

US financial system fragility, private credit, Treasury basis trade, Japan’s BOJ and Bitcoin—Neil Woodford explains what could break next (and what probably won’t).

Rachel Reeves’ second UK Budget as Chancellor might have been the most leaked Budget in history, but will her economic policy and change to taxes actually work?

Is AI really a bubble? Is the UK economy broken with a huge “black hole” that forces Rachel Reeves to raise taxes? Is Bitcoin finally dead after the latest crash? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford takes on the doom-mongers and explains what’s actually going on – and what it means for investors.

Are AI valuations out of control? Are investors blindly following the Mag7? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down the real risks in the AI boom, why the S&P 500 is more concentrated than most people realise, and why he believes the consensus has completely misunderstood this moment in markets.

Neil Woodford calls out Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ ‘expectation management’ speech ahead of the UK Budget — arguing that Britain’s economic problems aren’t caused by low taxes, Brexit or Liz Truss’s mini-Budget, but by record government spending. In this week’s episode, Neil dissects every claim from Rachel Reeves and exposes what he calls “the big lie” about Britain’s economy.

Nvidia just became the world’s first $5 trillion company, but can that kind of dominance really last? In this week’s conversation, Neil Woodford explains why he believes valuation is the financial law of gravity—and why even the strongest markets eventually have to obey it.

Is Brexit really dragging down Britain’s economy and the stock market, or is there more to the story? Valuations in the UK stock market are low so is now the right time to invest?

Is it better to buy the bubble or miss the boom? Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they discuss the implications of high valuations on future returns, the performance of Neil’s Top 40 investment strategy, and the significance of accurate productivity data in the UK.

EP 1010 Oct 202540:04

Are we heading for catastrophe?

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they investigate the speculation surrounding a potential market crash, analyse the reasons behind gold reaching $4,000/oz, and examine the political turmoil in France.

In this episode, is an AI bubble forming? Neil unpacks the hype and reality of AI’s economic impact as well as how he’s positioned the W4.0 strategies to benefit from the AI industrial revolution without having to accept ludicrous valuations. We also discuss the likelihood that the UK will need an IMF bailout.

Neil shares his perspective on Donald Trump’s surprise shift on Ukraine and what it signals for geopolitics and markets. We cover the growing clash over drug pricing in the UK and why major pharma companies are pulling back investment.

Neil gives his view on the latest central bank rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England. We also cover US-China trade relations, with insights into the implications of TikTok’s deal, NVIDIA’s AI chip restrictions and how US investment in the UK could impact the economy.

Neil shares his insights on Merck’s decision to halt its billion-pound research centre in London, central bank rate decisions, China’s latest stimulus measures, and Larry Ellison’s unprecedented wealth gain. Discover why bond yields are returning to previous levels and what this means for investors.

This week, the finance world has been anything but calm. Neil Woodford takes us through a story of unexpected market moves and the ripple effects across sectors and continents. Find out what’s really going on and why it matters to you.

Neil unpacks the surge in UK 30-year gilt yields, debunk the so-called “UK hysteria,” explore France’s political and debt crisis, and analyse Nvidia’s latest earnings and what it means for the AI boom.

From Trump’s peace push in Ukraine and the knock-on effects for defence stocks and oil, to the ONS’s data delays, the latest UK inflation figures, and what it all means for markets. Neil explains what these developments reveal about the economy, the risks policymakers face, and what we should be watching in the weeks ahead.

We discuss the week’s big topics, from stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures and growing pressure for US rate cuts, to DeepSeek’s AI training challenges, Harbour Energy’s North Sea retreat, and why UK wind farms are being paid not to produce nearly 40% of the time.

From Trump’s latest tariff move against India and the Bank of England’s rate cut, to a major UK court ruling for banks and huge AI spending plans from the tech giants, Neil shares his take on the political, economic, and company news that matters.

Go deeper than the podcast

Access the strategies, research, and real-time portfolio data behind the conversations.