Britain's Energy Shock Won't Break the Economy — Here's What Will
Every major UK forecaster — the IMF, Capital Economics, EY Item Club, KPMG — has downgraded Britain's growth for 2026 and blamed the energy shock. Neil Woodford thinks every one of them is wrong. Not about the numbers. About the diagnosis.
In this week's Noise Cancelling, Jon and Neil break down why the consensus is panicking about the wrong thing. The energy shock everyone is worried about? Absorbable. The £192 billion household savings buffer nobody's modelling? Real. And the actual drag on the UK economy — the one every forecaster is ignoring — has nothing to do with oil, gas or the price cap.
We cover the petrol arithmetic (every 5p at the pump costs the UK consumer £1bn a year), why cancelled overseas holidays might actually boost British GDP (the £54bn travel deficit nobody talks about), and the fiscal story that changes everything — UK tax receipts at 40.1% of GDP versus 35.5% under the last Labour government, a £140bn annual increase that's bigger than the entire budget deficit.
Neil's conclusion: the Bank of England needs to cut rates, and they need to cut them now. The Chancellor's "iron rules" are a fiscal illusion built on tax rises, not spending discipline. And the next three weeks — the MPC's May decision and Ofgem's Q3 cap announcement on 27 May — will set the direction of the UK economy for the rest of the year.
🎧 ABOUT THE NOISE CANCELLING PODCAST
Weekly UK macro and investment analysis with Neil Woodford — over 35 years of UK fund management experience — and Jon Adair. We cut through the consensus noise to explain what's actually happening in the global economy, and what it means for you.
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