The Iran War Is Already Over — Here's Why

Is the Iran war already over? Neil Woodford explains why Iran has just 13 days before its oil production suffers permanent damage — and why this means oil prices, UK inflation, and interest rates could all reverse faster than markets expect.

The US naval blockade of Iran began this week. Iran has approximately 13 days of oil storage capacity. After that, wells must shut down — and in mature oil fields, the damage to reservoir pressure, wellbore integrity, and long-term production capacity is irreversible. The Iranian regime knows this. China knows this. And it's why, despite headlines about military escalation, Neil Woodford believes this war is heading for a rapid resolution — with major implications for the oil price, the UK economy, and investors.

In this episode of The Noise Cancelling Podcast, Neil Woodford and Jon Adair explain the economic mechanism behind the Iran blockade, update the three Iran war scenarios from previous episodes, and examine why the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook — which cut UK growth to 0.8% and labelled Britain the most vulnerable G7 economy — is already out of date.