Three Ways This War Ends (One Of Them Is Very Bad)
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Oil is above $100. Trump just told the world to reopen it themselves. Every channel is covering what happened — we're giving you a framework for what happens next.
In this episode, Neil Woodford lays out three scenarios for how the Iran war ends, assigns a probability to each, and explains what each one means for oil prices, interest rates, and your money. One of those scenarios ends with oil cheaper than before the war started.
In this episode
— Iran war scenarios: ceasefire, regime change, or military escalation at the Strait of Hormuz
— Oil price forecast: why Brent crude could fall below $76 even after a war that pushed it above $100
— The Pakistan-China ceasefire initiative and what it means for a deal
— Trump's April 6 Hormuz ultimatum and whether it changes the odds
— What the war means for UK interest rates, mortgage rates, gilt yields and Bank of England policy
— OPEC's future if Iranian oil returns to global markets
— Defence stocks: opportunity or already priced in?
— Fertiliser supply chains, food prices and the second-order risks nobody is talking about
— How to think about your portfolio, pension and ISA during wartime uncertainty
Neil Woodford ran money for over 35 years, managing billions in UK equities. He now shares his investment views and economic analysis on this channel.
This is not financial advice. All investing carries risk. The scenarios discussed represent our view only and may not reflect future outcomes.
More episodes
UK Inflation Will Stay at 3% — Here’s Why the Market Is Wrong
UK inflation is falling while oil is up 35% and gilt yields are at an 18-year high. Neil Woodford explains why the 4-5% inflation forecasts are wrong again, what is actually in the CPI basket, and why the bond market may be pricing the wrong story.
Show notesBritain’s Productivity Crisis: A Great Deception?
Is the UK's productivity crisis actually real? The ONS has quietly admitted its Labour Force Survey overstated UK employment, and the HMRC tax data tells a completely different story about the UK economy, your taxes and interest rates. In this episode, Neil Woodford explains what the tax records really show about UK productivity, why the official survey invented half a million workers who don't exist, and how one wrong number fed both the OBR forecast that drove Rachel Reeves' tax rises and the Bank of England's view of how fast the economy can grow before rates must stay high. We also get into the collapse in graduate jobs and what it says about AI adoption in the UK, whether Britain's productivity has genuinely accelerated since 2024, and how the UK really compares with the G7. Stay to the end for what a correction means for the November Budget, mortgage rates, gilts and rate-sensitive UK stocks, and where Neil sees the opportunity. Read Neil's full written analysis Neil's first piece on this from 2024
Show notesThe 7 Decisions Every Investor Faces (Part 1)
Neil Woodford has been answering questions about investing for 35 years – and every one of them comes down to seven decisions. In part one of this three-part series, Neil and Jon Adair cover the funnel: the three decisions that take you from every company in the world down to a shortlist worth owning.
Show notesGo deeper than the podcast
Access the strategies, research, and real-time portfolio data behind the conversations.
