Three Ways This War Ends (One Of Them Is Very Bad)

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Oil is above $100. Trump just told the world to reopen it themselves. Every channel is covering what happened — we're giving you a framework for what happens next.

In this episode, Neil Woodford lays out three scenarios for how the Iran war ends, assigns a probability to each, and explains what each one means for oil prices, interest rates, and your money. One of those scenarios ends with oil cheaper than before the war started.

In this episode
— Iran war scenarios: ceasefire, regime change, or military escalation at the Strait of Hormuz
— Oil price forecast: why Brent crude could fall below $76 even after a war that pushed it above $100
— The Pakistan-China ceasefire initiative and what it means for a deal
— Trump's April 6 Hormuz ultimatum and whether it changes the odds
— What the war means for UK interest rates, mortgage rates, gilt yields and Bank of England policy
— OPEC's future if Iranian oil returns to global markets
— Defence stocks: opportunity or already priced in?
— Fertiliser supply chains, food prices and the second-order risks nobody is talking about
— How to think about your portfolio, pension and ISA during wartime uncertainty
 
Neil Woodford ran money for over 35 years, managing billions in UK equities. He now shares his investment views and economic analysis on this channel.

This is not financial advice. All investing carries risk. The scenarios discussed represent our view only and may not reflect future outcomes.