Why the IMF Is Wrong About Britain (And What To Do About It)
This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story.
Neil Woodford disagrees.
In this episode, Jon Adair and Neil walk through why the 30-year gilt is the wrong number to look at, why the 10-year — which has been moving in lockstep with US treasuries since 2020 — is what actually matters for UK funding costs, and what the bond market is positioning for when the Iran war ends.
What we cover:
- Why the DMO has cut long-dated gilt issuance by 80% in a single year
- The 10-year UK / US treasury correlation and what's actually changed
- What today's UK Q1 GDP data tells us about IMF projections
- Why fiscal constraints bind every prime minister, regardless of who's in office
- Where rates go when the Iran war ends
- Why the markets are still at all-time highs
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