UK Interest Rates Are Heading Below 3% — And the New Prime Minister Can't Stop It
Neil Woodford says UK interest rates are heading below 3% next year, and the new Prime Minister has almost nothing to do with it. The consensus says Britain has a structural growth problem. The data says something different: the UK economy is waiting on one number.
In this episode, we explain who actually buys Britain. Households account for roughly 60p of every pound of UK GDP, and since the pandemic, they have been saving at nearly double the American rate. British banks now hold over £500 billion more in deposits than they have lent out. That savings mountain, not Westminster rhetoric, is what decides whether Britain grows.
Neil explains why the Bank of England's sticky inflation fears have been wrong all year, why the household savings ratio is the single most important number in the UK economy, and where inflation and interest rates land over the next 12 months. Plus: the sectors that look mispriced if he's right, and the data releases that would confirm the view or kill it.
More episodes
UK Inflation Will Stay at 3% — Here’s Why the Market Is Wrong
UK inflation is falling while oil is up 35% and gilt yields are at an 18-year high. Neil Woodford explains why the 4-5% inflation forecasts are wrong again, what is actually in the CPI basket, and why the bond market may be pricing the wrong story.
Show notesBritain’s Productivity Crisis: A Great Deception?
Is the UK's productivity crisis actually real? The ONS has quietly admitted its Labour Force Survey overstated UK employment, and the HMRC tax data tells a completely different story about the UK economy, your taxes and interest rates. In this episode, Neil Woodford explains what the tax records really show about UK productivity, why the official survey invented half a million workers who don't exist, and how one wrong number fed both the OBR forecast that drove Rachel Reeves' tax rises and the Bank of England's view of how fast the economy can grow before rates must stay high. We also get into the collapse in graduate jobs and what it says about AI adoption in the UK, whether Britain's productivity has genuinely accelerated since 2024, and how the UK really compares with the G7. Stay to the end for what a correction means for the November Budget, mortgage rates, gilts and rate-sensitive UK stocks, and where Neil sees the opportunity. Read Neil's full written analysis Neil's first piece on this from 2024
Show notesThe 7 Decisions Every Investor Faces (Part 1)
Neil Woodford has been answering questions about investing for 35 years – and every one of them comes down to seven decisions. In part one of this three-part series, Neil and Jon Adair cover the funnel: the three decisions that take you from every company in the world down to a shortlist worth owning.
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